Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.016741 0.018985 0.021425 0.024276 0.027518 0.031091 0.035332
2025-04-27 0.013361 0.016473 0.020154 0.024836 0.030640 0.037611 0.046641
2025-05-04 0.011616 0.015158 0.019594 0.025571 0.033434 0.043453 0.057238
2025-05-11 0.010036 0.013713 0.018539 0.025354 0.034765 0.047351 0.065550
2025-05-18 0.008914 0.012675 0.017814 0.025374 0.036262 0.051452 0.074390
2025-05-25 0.007897 0.011633 0.016924 0.024996 0.037067 0.054555 0.082010
2025-06-01 0.007268 0.011059 0.016607 0.025361 0.038913 0.059243 0.092329
2025-06-08 0.006597 0.010341 0.015988 0.025176 0.039862 0.062611 0.100887
2025-06-15 0.006232 0.010049 0.015971 0.025893 0.042241 0.068348 0.113692
2025-06-22 0.005572 0.009218 0.015026 0.025019 0.041949 0.069755 0.119478
2025-06-29 0.005106 0.008656 0.014454 0.024689 0.042495 0.072537 0.127785
2025-07-06 0.004599 0.007978 0.013627 0.023841 0.042061 0.073589 0.133122
2025-07-13 0.004420 0.007853 0.013735 0.024640 0.044611 0.080098 0.148992
2025-07-20 0.004219 0.007674 0.013733 0.025245 0.046871 0.086305 0.164962
2025-07-27 0.004058 0.007548 0.013810 0.025991 0.049443 0.093292 0.183077
2025-08-03 0.003775 0.007170 0.013393 0.025771 0.050158 0.096839 0.194816
2025-08-10 0.003551 0.006882 0.013118 0.025790 0.051327 0.101341 0.208878
2025-08-17 0.003297 0.006515 0.012660 0.025406 0.051651 0.104193 0.219805
2025-08-24 0.003153 0.006354 0.012585 0.025777 0.053530 0.110319 0.238197
2025-08-31 0.002960 0.006074 0.012252 0.025589 0.054227 0.114062 0.251805
2025-09-07 0.002877 0.006014 0.012356 0.026319 0.056925 0.122235 0.275976
2025-09-14 0.002641 0.005613 0.011727 0.025430 0.056039 0.122626 0.282606
2025-09-21 0.002476 0.005351 0.011367 0.025094 0.056336 0.125618 0.295497